Election Results Simulator

Owned by Jonathan Schmale
Last updated: Jun 07, 2022
3 min read

The election results simulator is a tool that simulates election results for rehearsing results scenarios. It allows running simulations that exercise all possible outcomes for an election.

Database Setup

When you launch the simulator you will be first prompted to set the options for connecting to the election database you are using.

It is important to

- select the correct election database
- enter the correct election date

Defining Scenarios

Before running a simulation, scenarios must be defined. This is done from the Edit Scenarios tab on the main form.

For each scenario, choose the parties for the ridings and then save the scenario. Not all ridings need to be define.

Leaving their party blank gives you a riding with 0 polls reported/0 votes which is reasonable for elections that may have different time zones or remote ridings.

Running the Simulator

To define a simulation, choose the number of steps and the minutes for each step. For each step, the grid allows defined the scenario for each step. The first step always needs a scenario but it's fine to leave some blank. When blank, it continues the previous scenario.

The simulation runs for steps * minutes/step. So for a 3 step, 2 minutes/step simulation, the simulation runs for 6 minutes. When the simulation begins, it resets the results (polls reported and votes) and then it moves to the first scenario after the first n minutes. After that, it changes or remains on the same scenario every n minutes. The final step of the simulation runs the final scenario and then stops the simulation. At that point, polls reported = total polls for all ridings that have a party leading defined in the final scenario used.

While a simulation is running, the progress of the simulation is displayed in Flow's agent status:

Displaying Existing Scenarios

At any time, a scenario can be browsed from the Display Scenario tab. It's a handy way to look at scenarios especially while a simulation is running.

Questions and Answers

Q: I am noticing that sometimes the name of the step does not save.

A: Sometimes when you do a Save As… the new name you gave is automatically selected in the dropdown list in the Edit tab and sometimes it stays with the previous scenario selection. However if you then select the new scenario name in the list – the list displays correctly.

Q: When I edit the change to a step, the changes are not always reflected in the Party/Total box next to the "display scenario" display.

A: To see the changes you make in the Edit tab appear in the Display tab there are 2 things you need to do:

  1. Save the changes in the edit tab

  2. Reload the scenario in the Display tab

    1. If the scenario was already selected in the Display tab while you were editing – when you go back to the Display tab you’ll need to select a different scenario from the list and then re-select the scenario you edited. That will cause it to refresh with your latest saved changes.