Predictions
- Jonathan Schmale
Riding Result Predictions
You can provide your predictions on the results in each riding on a party-by-party basis. Then when the results come in the interesting agent will check your predictions against the actual results and flag interesting events based on those predictions.
NOTE: This is best used in combination with the Interesting Events application.
Assigning Predictions
To input your riding predictions you use the Riding Predictions module. On this page there is a select list which allows you to chose the riding you want to enter information for. Once selected the page displays the list of parties along with any riding insight that has been previously entered in the Riding management module.
You enter your prediction for each party on a scale of 1 to 100.
You can also enter a value for the Expected Turnout for the riding in this election.
Optionally press the button with the suggested value to copy it into the text box.
Examples
This sample shows that the Coalition party is expected to have a strong majority in the riding.
This sample shows an example of a two-party race which could go in either party's favor.
The party with the greatest values is/are the party expected to win that riding. This is noted in a popup for interesting events in the Results Summary.
A preference added in version 10.5.4.2 adds the ability to specify a % difference use to determine the top parties expected to win. If their predicted values are within that margin - then they are both/all considered as potential winning parties.
If two parties are tied then they are both shown as parties expected to win.
Predictions in Results
The predicted values are displayed in the Results Summary riding popup that shows the details of the riding votes.
The predictions display as a light bar within the party bar when it is less than or equal to their actual results and if the prediction was greater than actual - then it extends beyond as a dotted line. See below for an example.
Analysis
Once the predictions are saved and the results are coming in - the Interesting Agent will flag interesting prediction based events.
Examples
This candidate is behind when they were predicted to be the leader:
This candidate has a smaller lead than expected:
This candidate is doing better than expected with a greater percentage of the votes then predicted.
Overall Party Prediction Charts
Version 11.4.3.1 added a new predictions results page with a couple overall party charts. These charts help you to compare your predictions to what is presently unfolding in the election results. It is presented in 2 charts which display the same data in 2 different groupings.
The minimum predicted value includes ridings that the party is predicted to win by a large margin (landslide). The maximum value includes all ridings the party is predicted to be a possible winner.
The minimum adjusted value includes ridings that the party is elected in or is not yet elected but was predicted to win by a large margin. The max adjusted value includes all ridings the party is elected in or is predicted to be a possible winner.
The minimum actual value represents the number of ridings the party is elected in and the maximum actual value represents the number of ridings the party is leading in.
A possible winner is defined as a party that is predicted to have a percentage of votes that is within a set margin of the actual winner. This margin is set as a preference (Potential Winner Allowed Difference).
The first chart displays the prediction, adjusted prediction and actual results grouped by party.
The second chart displays the prediction, adjusted prediction and actual results grouped by these categories.
System Preferences
Interesting Events Enabled
When enabled the Interesting Agent will generate events related to predictions.
Default: True
Party Exceeding Percent
Sets the value that controls how large a difference is required to be considered exceeding expectations. When this value difference is exceeded then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.
Default: 10
Party Slim Lead Percent
Sets the value that controls how small a lead is required to be considered slim. When this lead is less than or equal to this value then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.
Default: 5
Potential Winner Allowed Difference
Sets the value that controls how close you have to be to the highest potential to be considered an expected winner.
Default: 10
Landslide Winner Allowed Difference
Sets the value that controls how much margin you have to have on the second highest potential to be considered an landslide/guaranteed/certain winner in the riding.
Default: 25
Required Poll Percent
The percentage of polls that must be reporting in the riding before any prediction events are created.
Default: 5