Riding Result Predictions

You can provide your predictions on the results in each riding on a party-by-party basis. Then when the results come in the interesting agent will check your predictions against the actual results and flag interesting events based on those predictions.

NOTE: This is best used in combination with the Interesting Events application. 

Assigning Predictions

To input your riding predictions you use the Riding Predictions module. On this page there is a select list which allows you to chose the riding you want to enter information for. Once selected the page displays the list of parties along with any riding insight that has been previously entered in the Riding management module. 

You enter your prediction for each party on a scale of 1 to 100. 

Examples

This sample shows that the Liberal party is expected to have a strong majority in the riding.

This sample shows an example of a two-party race which could go in either party's favor.

The party with the greatest value is the party expected to win that riding. This is noted in a popup for interesting events in the Results Summary.

If two parties are tied then they are both shown as parties expected to win.

Analysis

Once the predictions are saved and the results are coming in - the Interesting Agent will flag interesting prediction based events.

Examples

This candidate is behind when they were predicted to be the leader:

This candidate has a smaller lead than expected:

This candidate is doing better than expected with a greater percentage of the votes then predicted.

System Preferences

Party Exceeding Percent

Sets the value that controls how large a difference is required to be considered exceeding expectations. When this value difference is exceeded then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.

Default: 10

Party Slim Lead Percent

Sets the value that controls how small a lead is required to be considered slim. When this lead is less than or equal to this value then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.

Default: 5