Riding Result Predictions

You can provide your predictions on the results in each riding on a party-by-party basis. Then when the results come in the interesting agent will check your predictions against the actual results and flag interesting events based on those predictions.

NOTE: This is best used in combination with the Interesting Events application. 

Assigning Predictions

To input your riding predictions you use the Riding Predictions module. On this page there is a select list which allows you to chose the riding you want to enter information for. Once selected the page displays the list of parties along with any riding insight that has been previously entered in the Riding management module. 

You enter your prediction for each party on a scale of 1 to 100. 

Examples

This sample shows that the Liberal party is expected to have a strong majority in the riding.

This sample shows an example of a two-party race which could go in either party's favor.

The party with the greatest value values is/are the party expected to win that riding. This is noted in a popup for interesting events in the Results Summary.

A preference added in version 10.5.4.2 adds the ability to specify a % difference use to determine the top parties expected to win. If their predicted values are within that margin - then they are both/all considered as potential winning parties. 

If two parties are tied then they are both shown as parties expected to win.

Predictions in Results

The predicted values are displayed in the Results Summary riding popup that shows the details of the riding votes.

The predictions display as a light bar within the party bar when it is less than or equal to their actual results and if the prediction was greater than actual - then it extends beyond as a dotted line. See below for an example.

Image Added

Analysis

Once the predictions are saved and the results are coming in - the Interesting Agent will flag interesting prediction based events.

Examples

This candidate is behind when they were predicted to be the leader:

This candidate has a smaller lead than expected:

This candidate is doing better than expected with a greater percentage of the votes then predicted.

System Preferences

Interesting Events Enabled

When enabled the Interesting Agent will generate events related to predictions.

Default: True

Party Exceeding Percent

Sets the value that controls how large a difference is required to be considered exceeding expectations. When this value difference is exceeded then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.

Default: 10

Party Slim Lead Percent

Sets the value that controls how small a lead is required to be considered slim. When this lead is less than or equal to this value then the Interesting Agent will flag it as an interesting prediction event.

Default: 5

Potential Winner Allowed Difference

Sets the value that controls how close you have to be to the highest potential to be considered an expected winner.

Default: 10

Required Poll Percent

The percentage of polls that must be reporting in the riding before any prediction events are created.

Default: 5