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The election results simulator is a
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tool that simulates election results for rehearsing results scenarios. It allows running simulations that exercise all possible outcomes for an election.
Database Setup
When you launch the simulator you will be first prompted to set the options for connecting to the election database you are using.
It is important to
- select the correct election database
- enter the correct election date
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Simulation Setup
Once you have successfully connected to an election database instance you will see the main interface for the simulator. Here you can
- specify a time frame (duration) for the simulation to run.
- it will update results every 30 seconds incrementing votes and polls reporting gradually
- specify votes per riding
- divided among the candidates in the ridings to ensure the selected party wins the riding
- choose party ridings automatically or manually
- when the simulator chooses the ridings that each party will will you simply provide the total number of ridings the party will win.
- otherwise you must manually select the party for each riding
Running the Simulator
Choose Ridings Automatically
When you let the simulator choose the ridings automatically you only need to provide a total number of seats that each party will be leading/winning. Then when you press play it will assign each riding to a party in such a way that each party gets its assigned number of seats.
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Choose Ridings Manually
When you want to specify which party wins each riding party total values are ignored and instead you select a party from the dropdown list for each riding.
Save, Load and Clear Manual Scenarios
Once you have gone to all the work of specifying the party for each riding - it would be great to be able to save those selections either to run again as-is or make a few changes and then run again. Thankfully you can using the scenario menu above the list of ridings.
This becomes especially handy when you discover that this makes it possible to switch between scenarios during the simulation. You do this by creating and saving multiple scenarios. Then start the simulation with the first scenario. At an appropriate time - pause the simulator and open a new scenario. Then simply resume and see the new scenario apply at the next update.
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Defining Scenarios
Before running a simulation, scenarios must be defined. This is done from the Edit Scenarios tab on the main form.
For each scenario, choose the parties for the ridings and then save the scenario. Not all ridings need to be define.
Leaving their party blank gives you a riding with 0 polls reported/0 votes which is reasonable for elections that may have different time zones or remote ridings.
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Running the Simulator
To define a simulation, choose the number of steps and the minutes for each step. For each step, the grid allows defined the scenario for each step. The first step always needs a scenario but it's fine to leave some blank. When blank, it continues the previous scenario.
The simulation runs for steps * minutes/step. So for a 3 step, 2 minutes/step simulation, the simulation runs for 6 minutes. When the simulation begins, it resets the results (polls reported and votes) and then it moves to the first scenario after the first n minutes. After that, it changes or remains on the same scenario every n minutes. The final step of the simulation runs the final scenario and then stops the simulation. At that point, polls reported = total polls for all ridings that have a party leading defined in the final scenario used.
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While a simulation is running, the progress of the simulation is displayed in Flow's agent status:
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Displaying Existing Scenarios
At any time, a scenario can be browsed from the Display Scenario tab. It's a handy way to look at scenarios especially while a simulation is running.
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Questions and Answers
Q: I am noticing that sometimes the name of the step does not save.
A: Sometimes when you do a Save As… the new name you gave is automatically selected in the dropdown list in the Edit tab and sometimes it stays with the previous scenario selection. However if you then select the new scenario name in the list – the list displays correctly.
Q: When I edit the change to a step, the changes are not always reflected in the Party/Total box next to the "display scenario" display.
A: To see the changes you make in the Edit tab appear in the Display tab there are 2 things you need to do:
Save the changes in the edit tab
Reload the scenario in the Display tab
If the scenario was already selected in the Display tab while you were editing – when you go back to the Display tab you’ll need to select a different scenario from the list and then re-select the scenario you edited. That will cause it to refresh with your latest saved changes.